Lung Cancer Risk Calculator

Lung Cancer Risk in Smokers

This calculator estimates 6-year and 16-year lung cancer risk in current and former smokers using prediction models from the HUNT study (Markaki et al.). It incorporates age, sex, BMI, smoking history, occupational exposure, and daily cough to produce individualized risk estimates.

How Risk Is Calculated

The model computes log-odds from weighted factors including sex, age, pack-years, cigarettes per day, years since quitting, BMI, occupational radon or dust exposure hours, and chronic cough. Pack-years equal (cigarettes per day ÷ 20) × years smoked. BMI is weight in kg divided by height in meters squared. Probability is converted from log-odds using 100 ÷ (1 + e^{−log odds}).

Screening Thresholds

The HUNT model uses a 6-year risk threshold of 0.64% and a 16-year risk threshold of 1.75% for identifying individuals who may benefit from low-dose CT lung cancer screening. Results above these thresholds warrant discussion with a healthcare provider about screening eligibility per current guidelines.